William Katz: Urgent Agenda
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SNIPPETS, our daily collection of short items and comments, is here. --------------------------------------------- BARACK OBAMA'S FIRST HUNDRED DAYS is on hiatus until after the conventions. We've gone through the first 50 days. The conventions and the launch of the fall campaign will provide new material, new absurdities, and allow us to finish the first 100 days just before the election. An archive containing the first 50 days is here. --------------------------------------------- Our next subscription drive will be in October. However, readers are invited to subscribe at any time. Subscriptions are voluntary, but are critical to keeping us going. Subscribe in the right-hand column. -------------------------------------------- TO OUR READERS: Thank you for all your e-mails this week. Each one is read and absorbed. As you know, I try to answer all e-mails personally, but the sheer volume in the last three or four days, especially today, is putting me behind. Please don't feel offended if you don't get a reply immediately. I'll try, I'll try.
In an interview to air on "FOX News Sunday," McCain said that holding the convention while Gulf Coast residents suffer would be insensitive. COMMENT: The McCain people are on the ball. I hope McCain sends Sarah Palin to Louisiana to render assistance. He might consider going himself. Louisiana has a great governor in Bobby Jindal. This won't be Katrina...unless the press makes it into Katraina to help its candidate.
THE EXPERIENCE FACTOR Posted at 6:45 p.m. ET The "experience" factor has come to the fore again with John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin to be his running mate. There is anguish. There is regret. There are predictions of a backlash. That childish woman in our White House. Even The Politico, liberal but usually restrained, ran a hit piece quoting "scholars" as saying that Palin has fewer qualifications than any major-party candidate, maybe in all of human history. Reality check: No one doubts there are legitimate questions about Palin's experience, but I'm surprised that no one is examining the role that experience plays in voters' decisions. In fact, it often plays a very small role. In 1932, incumbent and vastly experienced Herbert Hoover was defeated by one-term Governor Franklin D. Roosevelt, because of the depression. In 1952, politically experienced Governor Adlai Stevenson of Illinois was defeated by war hero Dwight D. Eisenhower, who'd never held political office. In 1960, former congressman, senator, and incumbent Vice President Richard Nixon, running on the slogan, "Experience counts," was defeated by the much-less-experienced John F. Kennedy. In 1976, heavily experienced and incumbent President Gerald R. Ford was defeated by former Georgia Governor Jimmah Carter, who'd never held federal office. In 1980, incumbent President Carter was defeated by former California Governor Ronald Reagan, who'd never held federal office. In 1992, the resumé president, George H.W. Bush, one of the most experienced men ever to hold the presidency, was defeated by Bill Clinton, governor of a small state, who'd never held federal office. In 2000, Vice President and former Senator Al Gore was defeated by the less experienced George W. Bush, who'd never held federal office. And, need we point out, that 2008 has the vastly experienced John S. McCain running against Chicago machine product Barack Obama, a man whose experience can fit on the thin edge of a falsified voter-registration card. Let's hope that this time the voters choose the more experienced presidential candidate. August 30, 2008. Permalink
THE OTHER WOMAN Posted at 2:24 p.m. ET HEADLINE OF THE DAY, FROM THE NEW YORK POST: 'HILL' HATH NO FURY LIKE A WOMAN SCORNED. And the story:
Open those wounds, open those wounds!
First reaction to Palin by voters appears to be very positive, despite the legitimate "experience" question. It's a gamble, but it may well pay off, especially if Palin does brilliantly at the convention. August 30, 2008. Permalink TRACKERS Posted at 1:28 p.m ET Both trackers for the day are now out, and both show no change from yesterday. That is not good news for Senator Obama. Theoretically, at least, his bounce from the convention should still be building. As reported earlier, Rasmussen has Obama up four. Gallup has him up eight. Did Sarah Palin stop the Obama bounce? Both tracking polls included results from last night, after McCain announced his choice of Palin. With caution, it appears there was an effect. However, we'll get a far better idea of her impact as the Republican convention unfolds this week. If this is the maximum bounce, it must be disappointing to the Obama side. Averaging the two polls, Obama gets a six-point boost. He needed double digits to do some real damage to McCain. This will be a close, exciting, and critical election. August 30, 2008. Permalink
Just as significant, Rasmussen reports that Sarah Palin has made a strong first impression, with 53 percent of those polled viewing her favorably. By contrast, 48 percent view Joe Biden favorably. Not bad for one day. Not bad at all.
EYES AND EARS OF THEMSELVES Journalists love to boast that they're the "eyes and ears" of the public. They are not, as I found out in my years in the business. They are the eyes and ears of themselves. No one elected them. They were not appointed by a body of our representatives to extend our eyes and ears. The questions they ask are not ours, but theirs. Their views, as a profession, decidedly do not reflect the divisions in public opinion. Lawrence Spivak, who co-founded "Meet the Press," used to caution viewers that the questions asked by reporters on the show did not necessarily reflect their point of view, but was "their way of getting a story for you." Such cautions are rare today, and in too many cases would probably be laughable. So it's not surprising to see the mainstream media go to work on Sarah Palin. Consider this, from the reliably liberal Jonathan Alter of Newsweek:
What strikes me is the obvious enthusiasm here. The same mainstream media that ignored for months, or years, serious questions about Barack Obama, cannot wait to jump on Sarah Palin. And when Joe Biden was selected as Obama's vice-presidential choice last week, did you see a single probing report on his foreign-policy judgment in his 36 years in the Senate? We were told he was a foreign-policy expert, and it was left at that. In fact, many of Biden's judgments are open to the most serious questions, but those questions are not being asked. Indeed, if Biden's advice had been followed, the Cold War would still be raging and Saddam Hussein would be running Kuwait. Or consider this, from today's editorial in The New York Times:
Is that a serious statement? Has The Times raised the same question about the top of the Democratic ticket, one Barack Obama? His experience consists of some trips and some offhand remarks, such as declaring Iran a small country, or pledging to end missile defense. And he won't have to "succeed" to the presidency. If elected, he'll be there. Further, he's surrounded himself with some of the worst foreign-policy retreads we've seen in decades. Comment from The Times, please? (Oh, and by the way, New York Times, the word is "criterion" when a singular is called for, not "criteria." To avoid confusion, use "standard.") We've expressed our fear here that the media can elect Barack Obama by the way it filters the news. We're seeing more proof of that threat in the initial response to Sarah Palin. August 30, 2008. Permalink
Posted at 8:41 a.m. ET Ed Lasky of American Thinker alerts us to a Wall Street Journal piece outlining the reform background of Sarah Palin. She reinforces the reform image that McCain seeks for his campaign, and she's an antidote to Joe six-Senate-terms Biden, the consummate Washington hand:
And...
Do not get on the wrong side of this woman. There are health hazards.
Finally...
She'll have to steel herself against attacks by the press, which will become increasingly strident if she catches on. But she strikes us as strong and gutsy, and she has a chance to emerge as an American hero. August 30, 2008. Permalink
FRIDAY, AUGUST 29, 2008
UPDATE AT 9:01 P.M. ET: I've been monitoring the cable news programs, and it seems to me that the Dems have taken a body blow with McCain's selection of Sarah Palin. Their responses are either too harsh or anemic. They don't know how to handle this. They didn't know there are women in the Republican Party. They don't know about this Alaska place - nowhere near Manhattan or Beverly Hills. Someone should explain to them that there's snow in Alaska, just like the snow in Aspen, or at the Swiss resorts. Some Dem analysts point out Palin's experience level - which only calls attention to the experience deficit at the top of their own ticket. At least Sarah is a governor. She runs something besides her mouth. Karl Rove thinks the GOP will have a great five days ahead because of this pick. I agree.
BARACK WHO? Posted at 7:34 p.m. ET Do you remember Barack Obama? You know, from last night? B.S? (That means, before Sarah.) He's out there, and, as often happens, it's the British press that has the sharpest comments on him. For example, there's Gerald Warner in London's Telegraph:
Wonderful.
I detect that this man has doubts. May they be shared by more than half the American electorate.
Already happening. We hope that the Palin selection will blunt Obama's rise.
The British writers get right to the point. And I like the point Gerald Warner got to. August 29, 2008. Permalink
In contrast to Barack Obama, her party's candidate for president, whose experience can fit on the head of a pin. Thanks for calling attention to it, Barbara.
Blame the staff, Barack. After all, a saint is infallible.
NOT SMART Posted at 6:03 p.m. ET The Obama campaign's first reaction to Sarah Palin reveals an absence of thought, to put it mildly:
Let's see. In one announcement the Obama crowd insulted 1) small-town American, 2) the accomplishments of a woman and 3) their own presidential candidate, who has zero foreign-policy experience. You'd think, after what they did to Hillary Clinton, that they'd be sensitive about the choice of a woman, and offer gracious congratulations. Bottom line, these guys are coarse Chicago politicians, and that's all they'll ever be. August 29, 2008. Permalink
TRACKERS Posted at 1:14 p.m. ET Both trackers are now out for Friday. They were taken through last night, and do not reflect today's dramatic choice of Sarah Palin as GOP vice-presidential candidate. The trackers show the expected. As reported earlier here, Rasmussen has Obama up four points. Gallup has Obama up eight. Please note that Ras measures likely voters, Gallup registered voters. The trackers out tomorrow will reflect polling done Wednesday, Thursday and today. The first two days should provide a further boost for Obama. Today's result may or may not show the impact of the Palin pick, depending on when the polling is done. As I wrote below, I was very impressed with Palin's first time out today. She has that "terrific" quality about her. I think it will play. It has certainly shaken up the race. August 29, 2008. Permalink
FIRST IMPRESSION: Governor Palin has just spoken for the first time as vice-presidential candidate of the Republican Party. Home run. She is just terrific. She's articulate, firm, clear-thinking, and seems to have the instincts of a first-class candidate. I was very impressed. Obviously, we'll have more comments later as more is known. But I rarely have seen a candidate give so good a first impression. By the way, she paid tribute to Geraldine Ferraro, who was vice-presidential choice on the Democratic ticket in 1984, and to Hillary Clinton. Palin knows what she's doing, and she knows exactly what voters she's targeting. Some concerns have been expressed over how she'll do in a debate with Joe Biden. Don't worry about that. Biden, in debate, tends to get very aggressive and demeaning. Palin gave me the impression that she prepares well, will know the material cold, and be able to handle Biden. So far, very, very good.
THE USUAL SUSPECTS: CNN is already on the attack against Sarah Palin, joyously bringing out all her negatives. (There aren't many.) What else is new?
UPDATE AT 10:29 A.M. ET: Unless we're in for a shock, it appears almost certain that Governor Sarah Palin will be the Republican candidate for vice president. By the way, in the early eighties she was first runner-up in the Miss Alaska contest. That is a trap for Democrats. If they bring it up, they'll be accused of demeaning her. Indeed, they've got to be very careful now, considering what was done to Hillary. Clearly, McCain is going for the disaffected Hillary Not a bad idea. UPDATE AT 10:12 A.M. ET: Increasing signs that McCain's v.p. choice will be Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska. CNN reports that a plane from Alaska arrived earlier today at an airport near Dayton, where McCain plans to announce his choice. An airport official, according to CNN, said that a woman and two teenagers left the plane and were whisked into a waiting van. POLL ALERT, AT 9:52 A.M. ET: First tracker of the day is out. Rasmussen has Obama up four. This is the expected bounce, and will probably grow somewhat. Not to worry. McCain hasn't been to bat. It won't be Hillary. BULLETIN, AT 8:52 A.M. ET: Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota has just said that he will not be the Republican candidate for vice president.
LAST NIGHT AMONG THE FAITHFUL Is it over? Can we go out and play again? The Democrats are leaving Denver after what, thanks to the political shrewdness of the Clintons, was a successful convention. Hillary didn't cause any trouble, and Bill minded his tongue and his manners. They thus got what the actress Joan Crawford used to call "the big okay," the blessing of their industry - politics - to continue. The Clintons are well placed to knock on Democratic doors again if Obama should lose in November. And no one wants him to lose more than the Clintons. As Hillary stood amongst the New York delegates, throwing her support to Obama, you just knew that she wanted the scene recorded by every camera ever manufactured. If she runs again, that photo will be prominently displayed. "Team player" is still a compliment. Barack Obama spoke well last night. He is an outstanding speaker. Notice that I didn't say that he's an outstanding speechmaker. An outstanding speechmaker has to have an outstanding speech, and that speech, once examined, was far less than outstanding. It was a well-polished Democratic laundry list, the same list we've heard year after year, including those years when Democrats controlled both the White House and Congress. Strange, but items never seem to disappear from that list and go into the "accomplished" column. I guess the list has sentimental value. I always stress foreign affairs because, as a young person involved in politics, I was taught that you can absorb four years of a bad domestic policy, but that four years of a bad foreign policy can be fatal. For the life of me, I could not figure out Barack Obama's foreign policy from that elegantly delivered address last night. He will be tougher on Iran than the GOP, but how? He will repair our alliances, but never told us how he'll get "allies" to do what they clearly don't want to do. He won't "go it alone." You mean, never? What if England had decided not to "go it alone" in 1940? He'll restore our prestige, but never explained that anti-Americanism is a constant in this world, especially in Europe. You'd think, listening to Obama, that everyone once loved us, but started hating us as soon as we entered Iraq. That is the view of a child or a political snake-oil salesman. It is not the view of a knowledgeable leader. Obama will get a bounce from the convention. I would not be shocked if he was up ten to twelve points over the weekend. That will settle back, but the degree of settling will depend on how well John McCain and his running mate do next week. McCain must take Obama/Biden on directly and vigorously. He must expose the Democratic ticket as the hollow road show that it is. He must raise doubts, and more doubts. And he must provide his own optimistic, Reaganesque view of the future. It can be done, but this won't be easy. The Democrats have nominated a superb speaker adored by the press. McCain must, as Reagan did, speak over the heads of the middlemen and directly to the American people. August 29, 2008. Permalink
Posted at 8:43 a.m. ET Charles Krauthammer, among the American commentators, has probably done the best job of nailing Obama's speech. His critique is devastating and brilliant. But, alas, I doubt that it will have any effect on the media love fest. However, for our side, it's a joy to read:
Truth, truth, truth.
And...
Joe Biden weighed in, deceptively:
That last paragraph shows what a little research can do. But a generation taught to respect only "feelings" has little interest in research.
But they won't care, as long as he wins, as long as he restores the illusions of the sixties. Obama is a man, not of the future, but of the past. He nurtures the adolescence that has taken over the Democratic Party. What we saw last night was a rock concert, a "happening." It was intentional. August 29, 2008. Permalink
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